Democrat Graham Long, left and Congressman Peter King, right. Rep. Peter King, Long Island's only Republican congressman, is seeking his eighth term in the House of Representatives and the political pundits think the outcome of this election should be no different than the other seven.

"Incumbent congressmen rarely lose," said Lawrence Levy, executive director of the National Center for Suburban Studies at Hofstra University. "In King's case, he's probably a congressman for life." He even went so far as to jokingly to refer to King as "Papa Doc King", a reference to the late Haitian dictator Francois Duvalier who named himself "President for Life."

Former Assemblyman Jerry Kremer, one of Long Island's top political observers, said last year that King represented "a bullet-proof district." (He admitted that he did not know the name of King's opponent.)

" Now I would say how it's armor- plated," Kremer said. "They took an area with the largest conservative Republican concentration in Nassau and put it in King's district." He noted that Republican officeholders in general, unlike King, will be facing tough legislative battles this year and when it's over, Kremer said, King may emerge as one of only three GOP congressmen in the entire state.

King's Democratic opponent, 25-year-old Graham Long of Glen Cove, who is seeking elective office for the first time, does not, of course, agree with the doomsayers who give him little chance. "If 2008 proves anything, it's that anything can happen," he said. He noted previous Democratic victories in normally-solid GOP congressional districts in Louisiana and Georgia. Republican leaders have conceded that GOP office holders generally faced tough elections as they did in 2006 when Democrats took control of Congress.

Long admits he has an uphill fight. "There has been a lot of gerrymandering of this district to give Pete King a big advantage," Long said. But he adds that Democratic presidential candidate, Barack Obama, has been campaigning "for change" for several months already, knocking on doors and showing up at events across the district. Long works for the Nassau Planning Commission, but is taking a leave of absence during the last month of the campaign. He also has the Working Families Party designation.

Long wants U.S. troops out of Iraq, on a timetable similar to the one favored by Obama, and "the one backed by the President of Iraq, who wants American withdrawal by no later than 2011." He also backs greater emphasis on renewable energy.

The district covers much of southwest Hempstead Town from Long Beach and northward in an hour-glass arch to take in the Northeast of Nassau and Oyster Bay Town and back to cover southern Babylon and parts of Islip south of Sunrise Highway. It is 91 per cent white and more than 60 per cent Republican. The closest Democrats came to beating King was two years ago when Democratic County Legislator David Mejias cornered 44 per cent of the vote.

Despite all the apparent advantages, however, King says he is not taking anything for granted. "I'm working very hard in my district," he said. He noted he is the only Republican incumbent congressman south of Rochester at the present time. "It is getting lonely out there."

Despite the present major economic problems, King says he spends most of his time working on homeland security problems, being the senior Republican on the House Homeland Security Committee. "I'm working very hard to see that the southwest border fence is built." He said he also works closely with state and local authorities such as joint terrorist task forces to see that they get adequate federal funds, especially on Long Island. In addition to the Republican nomination, the Seaford legislator is also running on the Conservative and Independence Party lines.